Three Scenarios for the Future of America's Food
November/December 2000
Hal Hamilton Yes! A Journal of Positive Futures (www.futurenet.org)
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This is a time of great upheaval in the American food production system, ranging from the boom in natural food stores to the unparalleled power of multinational agribusiness companies. There are solid hopeful signs amid the ongoing trends of dwindling family farms, massive livestock feedlots, and more new products on the grocery shelves packed with artificial ingredients.
Who would have guessed that the U.S. Department of Agriculture would receive more than 275,000 responses to its attempt to water down the 'organic' label? Who would have predicted the strong tide of consumer resistance to genetic engineering of food? Who would have expected that farmers throughout the world would join with labor, youth, and environmentalists to help scuttle World Trade Organization plans for expanding corporate dominance of global trade? It's anyone's guess where all this is leading, and what shape food production will take in the future. Here are three possible scenarios, all based on current trends.
Business as Usual: Agriculture continues much as it is--large, industrialized operations produce commodities in bulk quantities, shipping them all across the world. Meanwhile, smaller growers serve local and niche markets. Sustainable and homegrown products gain some ground, but large corporations make major inroads into the increasing market for organic food. New environmental laws limit the most obvious ecological problems caused by bigger industrialized farms, but the overall quality of the rural environment declines. Depopulation of the countryside continues as fewer people make their living from the land.
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