Are the polls wrong about Kucinich?
Kucinich moves to second place in innovative candidate website activity ranking
December 2003
Rob Kall OpEdNews.com
The same internet statistics that predicted within less than one
percentage point the percentage Howard Dean won the the Moveon.org
internet primary by shows Dennis Kucinich ahead of all the
candidates except Howard Dean, who holds a strong lead on Kucinich
as well. And in the California Democratic Council (CDC) Vote,
Howard Dean took a commanding first place with 56.11 percent of the
vote with Dennis Kucinich placing second with 17.19 percent and
Wesley Clark with 14.48 percent.
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Kucinich is now, with a usual estimate of two percent support in
most polls, where Clinton Was in the Months before the Start of the
1991 Primaries. But the congressman's very strong showing in web
activity is a very positive sign that suggests pollsters who poll
just a few hundred people may be wrong about Kucinich. The
Alexa.com stats used in this article that show Dean, then Kucinich
in the lead, ahead of the pack, are based on data from hundreds of
thousands of internet users. The CDC vote was based on votes from
delegates, representing 130 Democratic clubs and county central
committees.
David Swanson, Kucinich Campaign press secretary told
OpEdnews.com, 'There are a number of examples of candidates who
were, during these early months, dismissed as fringe, no hope
candidates who were low in the early polls, who were either
nominated in the primaries or who had a big impact at the
convention and in the early primaries. This was completely
unexpected by the mainstream media. Those examples include Jerry
Brown, Jesse Jackson, Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton.
When asked what he thought of the mainstream media's suggestions
that Al Gore was playing 'king maker' with his endorsement of
Howard Dean, that it might have clinched the nomination for him,
Swanson replied, 'The polls that may be most significant, though
getting the least attention, are the ones showing that the majority
of the voters know nothing about any of the candidates, so it's an
open field. There have been a number of polls that put
'un-decided' in first or second second place. There are
two big problems with the pundits saying that it's wrapped up this
early in the race. First, there's no historical background for
this. Where people are in the polls does not predict how things
will turn out.'
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