The Iranian Labyrinth

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The futility of sanctions
If Iran does not accept Russia's offer, the International Atomic Energy Agency will probably refer Iran to the UN Security Council next week for sanctions. What would UN sanctions mean for Iran, its citizens, and the countries that trade with Iran?

If you look at what happened on September 24 [when the IAEA passed a resolution demanding that Iran reassure the body that its nuclear programs are peaceful, or face sanctions], 22 countries voted with the US and the EU. One, Venezuela, opposed, and twelve countries abstained. ... Immediately after the meeting on 24 September, the leader of the non-aligned movement to which 10 members belong, immediately attacked the IAEA majority decision and said [the] major concerns and those of like-minded states were not taken on board. Mr. [Abdul Samad] Minty, the [IAEA board] governor for South Africa -- you know they voluntarily gave up their nuclear bomb in 1993 -- said that Europeans and Americans had "ridden roughshod" over others and that this was "dangerous." So one shouldn't really say that it's the rest of the world on one side and Iran on the other. On the contrary this whole thing is very divisive. For the first time on this issue there was voting, and of course 12 abstentions have to be taken, basically, as negative votes.

The next meeting is November 24. ... Three members have changed. Instead of Venezuela it will be Cuba, and another Arab country will be Syria, and from Eastern Europe will be Belarus. All these three countries are going to hardly vote with America. The key point is India, because India voted with America last time. This brought a lot of pressure internally, because the Indian government is a minority government in parliament. Members of parliament have said, If you again vote with America we will bring the government down. There is a lot of pressure on India on both sides. ... India will, I think, most likely abstain. So that means that if they go by my numbers that I have done, the Europeans and the Americans might get 18 votes out of 35. A majority to take it to Security Council. But that number's not very good.

So let's say that they are taken to the Security Council. We can think of three levels of sanctions. One is that there simply would be a travel ban on those Iranian officials who are directly involved in the nuclear program.

The second level would be that no country will give Iran any nuclear help, civilian or whatever. Except, of course if the contract is already signed. Russia has the contract signed [to build a nuclear power plant] and they've already done 85 percent of the job.

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