The Iranian Labyrinth

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The third sanction would be an oil embargo. Without an oil embargo, not much damage can be done to the Iranian economy. It's that simple. Now, Iran is the fourth-largest oil producer in the world. It is the second-largest exporter. And we have seen the price of oil. Now if you remove Iranian oil from the world market, what happens? Oil prices would hit $100 a barrel. It will hurt everybody. Secondly, and more importantly, Iran has got 900 miles of coastline. Oil is very much in demand; it's a very precious commodity. In India and China -- it is selling like mad. They want oil. Everyone wants oil. So how do you control the outflow of oil by illegal means from a country which has got 900 miles of coastline? Plus, they have land borders with countries like Pakistan, Afghanistan, Turkmenistan, and with the Armenians, with Azerbaijan, with Iraq. So how is anybody going to ever enforce these sanctions against Iranian oil?

The citizens, they have been through sanctions before. Immediately after the revolution, they were sanctioned both by Americans and by Europeans. And they fought an 8-year-long war with Iraq. And because oil prices are high, Iran has set up what they call the oil-stabilization fund. Every year they do the budget, and any excess money over the budget from oil, they put in. They're not spending it. So they have a nest egg.

How do the commercial interests of Europe and Russia affect negotiations with Iran?

A lot of European oil companies are already there. ... If there are any sanctions, that will hurt them. New contracts will not be allowed. I don't honestly think Russia has got any commercial interest because they have the same oil and gas as Iran has. Only thing is, they want to have good relations because Iran is next door. Which is not the case in terms of China. China has huge contracts on oil and gas. And going back to the sanctions, it's very simple: Look what happened in Sudan. Darfur massacre? China has got oil interests in Sudan, so they say, If you want to put sanctions on it, we're gonna veto it. So any sanctions on Iran are just, you know, very minor. They will not affect anybody, and whatever was going on before is going to go on now.

The Hollywood version
Iran has denied having any nuclear weapons ambitions. But with other nuclear powers in the region, do you think Iran would like to develop weapons? What about President Ahmadinejad's statement that Israel should be "wiped off the map"?

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