The Y2K Neighborhood

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'I have a standing answer,' Davis told me, 'for any public official who says he doesn't have a Y2K problem: show me your report. Until you methodically inventory your systems, it's meaningless to make any claims about Y2K. This is hard work, and it's absolutely essential. Any community whose officials are not performing this analysis, and who are not regularly reporting on their progress, could be in serious trouble.'

A barrel-chested man of six-two, Davis has the demeanor of a big city battalion fire chief accustomed to giving high stakes direction under pressure. He doesn't like to talk about worst-case scenarios for Y2K, because he doesn't expect them to happen. He senses that the country is on the verge of a Manhattan Project­level assault on Y2K and he won't give reporters looking for sensational survivalist stories the time of day. (A recent e-mail message he sent to a Swiss journalist working that angle: 'I'm sorry but I will do nothing to promote news coverage of the Y2K survivalist mentality. I think that it would be much better if you were to do a story on what needs to be done to minimize the problem.') Still, Davis doesn't pull punches about how serious he thinks Y2K could be without adequate preparation. He says worst-case scenarios can be avoided if government at all levels puts itself on a war footing and if all citizens take preparation seriously.

One of the most frequently consulted sites on Davis' Web page, 'What Government Should be Doing About the Y2K Problem,' contains such admonitions as:

Government has a moral obligation to make Y2K its top priority. Governments should immediately take a 'Manhattan Project' or 'Marshall Plan' approach and deal with this as the potential crisis that it is. The basic concept is that we must quickly pull public and private-sector leadership together to organize efforts to mitigate and prepare for Y2K impacts. The year 2000 problem is:

· A bug that will potentially impact many electronic systems

· A risk to our power, water, sewer, and telecommunications systems

· The greatest challenge ever to face government in modern times

· A complex threat that will be a tremendous test of leadership

· Something that must be fixed quickly in the face of dwindling resources

Without solid processes for a coordinated response to emergency situations, loss of life and widespread suffering are very likely to occur. Put the considerable logistical capabilities of the national and state armed services, guards, and militias to work planning solutions to problems.Based on the kinds of problems found and corrected in Montgomery County--the 911 emergency system, among others--Davis concludes that the world isn't yet anywhere near ready for Y2K.

'I've run into tons of people who say that their city is doing nothing,' says Davis. 'If tomorrow were New Year's Day 2000 it would be horrific, in my view. You would have mass systems failures, probably power failures--telecommunications, water, sewer--and all the ugly things you can imagine, resulting from a shortage of food and so on. Economically, it would be a depression.... The economic and personal loss [of wealth, not life] from year 2000 would be as devastating as World War III.'

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