Oh, What a Tangled Web


| August 2003

Last month Joseph Wilson, former acting ambassador to Iraq, predicted that President Bush may resort to waging another war in the region prior to the 2004 presidential election. During a forum hosted by the Education for Peace in Iraq Center, Mr. Wilson -- the man the White House sent to Africa last year to uncover the truth about the Iraq-Niger uranium deal -- hypothesized a 'worst case scenario' in which political circumstances in Iraq will become so volatile that the President will initiate another war in a last-ditch attempt to win a second term in office.

Mr. Wilson theorized that by this time next year, southern Iraq could be consolidated under Shia control -- a theocracy that might possibly reach as far north as Baghdad. As a result, Sunnis could regroup and attempt to reclaim their homeland, employing guerilla tactics exercised during the Ba'ath regime. Meanwhile, the Kurds' push for autonomy from Turkey could result in an American/Turkish alliance against Kurdistan, causing Kurdish allies to side against the U.S. As a result, the Sunni, Shiites and Kurds could reasonably concur that America must be out of the picture if any of the groups are to reach their individual political agendas.

Back in America, Bush could have difficulty getting re-elected, given the projected budget deficit of $500 - $600 billion, an anticipated increase in unemployment, and Mr. Wilson's prediction of 10 Americans dying daily in Iraq, due to the growing anti-American sentiment in the Middle East. This, compounded with bloodshed in Israel resulting from the implementation of Ariel Sharon's political agenda (which Mr. Wilson ascertains is the real reason for America's war with Iraq) may drive the president into another conflict, in order to cut a 'quick deal' that would put another government in place, allowing the US to withdraw its troops, leaving the Sunnis, Shiites and Kurds to 'have at each other.'

In Mr. Wilson's opinion, this possibility of war is 'unavoidable,' as 'the president doesn't want to run [for president] as President -- he wants to run as Commander-In-Chief.' In order for another war to be avoided, America must 'mitigate the negative consequences.' Mr. Wilson provided a series of short-term, medium-term and long-term plans which could avert a potential conflict by internationalizing the rehabilitation of Iraq -- an unlikely circumstance, given the Bush Administration's recent rifts with NATO, the European Union and the United Nations.



To hear Mr. Wilson's speech in its entirety, scroll to the bottom of the EPIC Iraqi Forum web page and select the link under Joseph Wilson's bio.

Go there>>The EPIC Iraqi Forum