Global Warming Probability Wheel

So the truth is that tornadoes probably will not terrorize
downtown Los Angeles ‘the day after tomorrow,’ nor will the
northern Atlantic freeze solid, like the blockbuster Hollywood
scare movie suggests. But that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t be
concerned about the long-term consequences our energy consumption
will have on mother Earth. To illustrate the dangers of various
rising-temperature scenarios, Results for America, a
Campaign of the Civil Society Institute, has unveiled the ‘Global
Warming Probability Wheel.’ After all, without foresight all we can
do is spin the wheel and hope for the best outcome as we continue
burning our fossil fuels with little regard for tomorrow.

Even a smaller rise in global temperatures would be devastating.
According to the probability wheel, ‘A 2 to 4 degrees Fahrenheit
temperature increase will likely bring regional shifts in climate
and greater risk of floods, storms, and droughts. For example,
Australia and Africa could suffer more frequent and extreme water
shortages, while increased flooding might occur in Southeast Asia
and along the Mississippi river… Even at this relatively low
level of warming, there could be a widespread increase in the risk
of malaria and certain other diseases transmitted by

Whereas the scariest scenario on the wheel could spell drama
reminiscent of a Hollywood movie: ‘A temperature increase of
greater than 10 degrees Fahrenheit could bring widespread and
catastrophic changes. The droughts, floods, and heat waves likely
to occur in any global warming scenario would be especially
intense. Ecosystems and human populations would have difficulty
adapting to such a large and rapid temperature change — ecosystems
could be damaged by fire and insects, and the food supply would be
reduced by heat stress and diminished agricultural output. Over 10
million people could lose their homes in Bangladesh alone due to a
3-foot rise in sea level.’

By the way, this writer was twice as likely to spin a
temperature increase of greater than 10 degrees Fahrenheit than one
of between 2 and 4 degrees Fahrenheit.
Jacob Wheeler

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Warming Probability Wheel

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